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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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Negotiations around terminations and the newly established roles are expected to last approximately three weeks.
These internal changes form part of wider organisational shifts following Veikkaus’ May 2026 decision to establish two subsidiaries: one dedicated to exclusive operations and another for the newly competitive, licence-based market.
Veikkaus has submitted licence applications as a private entity, joining around 50 other companies that had applied to join the upcoming market by the end of June.
