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Sun International’s adjusted EBITDA (excluding TBH) edged up 2% to R1.59 billion in H1. Revenue growth was at the “upper end of expectations”.

H1 growth was driven by Sun International’s online division, with revenue from SunBet surging 35.5% year-on-year to R1.18 billion.

Sun International CEO Ulrik Bengtsson noted SunBet’s revenue growth of 35.5% outpaced the 19% South African online market’s overall growth of 19% during the period,

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For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.

The result is an emerging ecosystem that looks less like millions of customers casually trading predictions with one another and more like an outsourced sportsbook trading room. Exchanges own the platform and recruit the customers; specialist firms price the risk and provide the money needed to make those markets function.

As Marantelli says: “Let’s call a spade a spade.”

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Retention has provided another encouraging signal. Depending on the market, Yashin says day-one, day-seven and day-30 retention can range from around the crash-game benchmark to between five and 10 times higher. The number of rounds played during a session can also be significantly greater.

The explanation, he believes, comes back to the behaviour that inspired Swipe Games in the first place. Crash players may experience a different outcome each time, but visually they repeatedly encounter much the same thing. Social media has conditioned its users to expect something new with every swipe.

“People are not playing it just as a quick crash game,” Yashin says. “They play it more like they are betting. It is a different pattern.”