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The VGT dispute and construction reset are the latest chapters in a long and bumpy road for Bally’s since winning Chicago’s sole casino licence in 2022. Work has been halted for debris overflow and for unapproved contractors, and the company faced an $800 million funding gap that was eventually filled through a financing agreement with Gaming and Leisure Properties. Potential interference with city water lines also necessitated a significant redesign of the hotel plan.

At one point, the IGB ordered a temporary work stoppage at Bally’s permanent casino following reports of alleged ties between an unapproved dumpster service with organised crime.

Bally’s has been granted two years’ worth of extensions for the permanent project. State law allows for two-year temporary licences, but the Illinois Gaming Board approved an extension to three years in 2023. That pushed the deadline to this September, but Bally’s ultimately received another year’s worth of extensions through language included in the state’s omnibus revenue bill that was passed in June.

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There is a second complication. The relentless flow of Commission statements may eventually make enforcement less damaging rather than more.

“The regulatory failures are unhelpful but perhaps the sheer number and regularity of them has made them less remarkable, such that they become ‘wallpaper’,” Waugh says.

He argues that some lawyers and licensees believe the Commission’s presentation of cases is detached from the operational reality but feel they have little option other than to accept the “regulator’s truth” when settling.

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In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.

The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.

James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.